Print

Periodicals
Magazines and journals will see some advertising move away from print. Since the number of periodical pages is driven by advertising, the loss of one ad page equals the loss of an editorial page as well. As promotional budgets are re-allocated to accommodate the Internet, periodicals will see a reduction in their page volume. The printed periodical and the Internet will work synergistically in the future as new revenue models evolve. One will not replace the other. Of four possible scenarios, our prediction shows a slight decline in print volume through 2020.

Newspapers
Newspapers will experience a significant drop. They are challenged by the Internet in terms of immediacy and comprehensiveness (there a limited amount of space in a printed paper), as well as advertising. The Web is already a major channel for classified ads. As long as newspapers can retain their market coverage, they can derive revenue from ad circulars and flyers and other advertising inserts. But overall newspapers face the most challenges in the new media age.

Books
There will be a slight decline in printed books based on reference and academic materials moving to electronic media-either Web-based or via so-called e-books. The major trend with printed books will be on-demand printing-literally one at a time. E-books will not pose a significant challenge until after 2020 and more people will create more books and promote them on the Web, which will be printed out as needed, probably in bookstores.

Catalogs
The business and consumer catalog will see a drop in page count but the number of catalog titles will increase. Targeted mailings will be the norm and the recipient will be directed to the Web site-push media will work with pull media. This will cause a slight drop in the volume of paper reproduced. As long as some percentage of the population is not on-line-or directly accessible-there will be a need for direct marketing via mail or hand delivery.

Direct Marketing
Direct mail marketing will grow slightly. It is a push prmotion medium that can target audiences and is independent of technology. It is the most democratic promotional channel since it can provide total coverage by geography or demography. Personalized promotions will be the norm as we develop more finely-tuned approaches to relationship marketing. Postal rate increases will force us to find alternative channels.

Directories
Directories will see a severe drop as their content moves to the Web. Reference information is the most likely candidate for electronic applications because of search and retrieval capabilities. Telephone books will continue until portable electronic appliances access phone databases. Many directories have already made the transition to recorded disks and are now transitioning to the Web. The printed directory will see a reduction in volume through 2020.

Financial and Legal
Much of the information produced by public corporations must be in electronic form by law, but the promotional aspect of the material will keep print viable. Annual reports are both legally-mandated and vehicles for promotion (depending on the news within them). Legal statutes will be published in both print and electronic media-for the reference-ability of the hardcopy and the search-ability of the electronic version. Overall, a drop is volume is projected but not as severe as one might think because of the promotional aspect of some of these materials.

Packaging
This is a major growth area since it has no electronic alternative, other than science fictional "beam-me-up-Scotty" transporters. Look for shorter runs of geographic and demographic labels and packaging. Changes in regulation will mandate continuing changes in packaging for required information, as well as changes in marketing and products. Even e-commerce will impact packaging since goods will have to be shipped in something.

Technical Documentation
Most major technical documentation will move to disk and Web-based dissemination, except for those instruction manuals that come with everything from TV sets to washing machines. This latter category is more voluminous than many realize and we do not expect a standardized competitive replacement. Operating and other user manuals will move to electronic forms with hardcopy production as required for training.

Advertising
Advertising and promotional materials-brochures, flyers, etc.-will see strong growth . . . some of the strongest growth. Most of what the printing industry prints is printed because someone wants to sell something to someone else. Think of an average day with a visit to the bank, stores, auto dealer, and other places. Printed materials abound and they are mostly promotional in nature. There is no major electronic replacement projected.

Stationery
The handwritten mailed note is losing ground to the finger-typed e-mail. E-beamed contact data from PDA to PDA will grow and impact business cards. Eventually digital photos, video, and audio will supplant the text-based message as we know it. E-mailed voice and imagery will allow people to communicate the human experience. Some decline in envelopes is expected over the next two decades.

Internal and Forms
Paper forms drop severely as they are replaced by electronic versions. These will be backed up with paper for a period of time and eventually the confidence level will negate the need for the paper. We have placed financial transaction documents (statements, invoices, etc.) in the financial and legal category. Internal memos and other inter-office and inter-company communication will be replaced with e-mail and attached Word, Excel, and PDF documents.

Miscellaneous Publishing
Greeting cards, wrapping and wall paper, are among the products in this category. Entire walls of e-paper could allow instantly-changeable decors but you will still wrap a gift (unless the is e-wrapping paper) and send grandma a card instead of an e-greeting, although grandma will probably be on the Web chatting with other grandmas.